Global studies point to Joburg’s role as Africa’s leading city
Johannesburg will emerge as the undoubted leading city in Africa by the end of the next decade as economic growth trends keep pace with the expected rise in the population.
Three independent studies published by international and local think-tanks in recent weeks point to the leadership position that Johannesbrug will occupy within the African continent over the next 15 year.
• Oxford Economic, based in the United Kingdom predicts that Johannesburg will be the biggest city in Africa in terms of gross domestic product – GDP – by 2030, surpasing other contenders such as Cairo, Luanda, Lagos and Cape Town. The 750 largest cities in the world were studied during the survey.
• International Consultancy Company, PWC, included Johannesburg among its study of 27 “Cities of Opportunity.”
• The Global Cities Initiative – GCI – contludes that the Gauteng City Region, with Johannesburg at its core, will remain the top destination in sub-Saharan Africa for greenfield foreign direct investment. GCI is a joint project of the Brookings Institution in the USA and JP Morgan Chase.
The threee studies share a common appreciation for the fact that the future of the globe will increasingly be dependent on the ability of urban areas to generate economic growth and job creation to accommodate the rise in population figures. A similar conclusion was reached by the Africities Conference hosted by Johannesburg in December.
The report by Oxford Economics expects Johannesburg to almost double the size of its GDP over the next 15 years – from the current US$ 100-billion to $196-billion in 2030. It predicts that the growth in the number of middle-income households in Africa will be “impressively strong” – albeit form a low current base.
One of the factors measured in the report is the expected growth in demand for consumer goods, most notably clothing and cars. Johannesburg will grow into the 18th largest consumer market for vehicles in 2030 – ahead of maturing global cities such as Istanbul, Rio de Janeiro, Bangkok and Sydney.
Challenge
Youthful population:
In 2030 African cities “will be overwhelmingly young” compared to urban areas on other continents, according to Oxford Economics. Millions of young people will have to be absorbed into the urban labour force.
Demand for infrastructure:
Rapid urbanisation will put pressure on cities’ ability to provide roads, power and water networks and housing.
Diversification of economic activities:
Cities will have to reduce their dependence on the primary sectors such as mining and increasingly switch towards the financial and services sectors of the economy.
Joburg’s Response
Programmes such as Vulindiel’ eJozi and Jozi@Work are designed to equip young people to compete more effectively in the modern economy. The focus is on skills development, training and the matching of available skills with opportunities in the labour market.
Joburg has launched a R100-billion investment in strategic infrastructure. The Corridors of Freedom initiative will bring people closer to economic opportunities in the core city and reduce the costs of transport.
The GCI Report singles out the quality of the region’s services sector as “a major competitive advantage” and refers to Johannesburg as “the entrepreneurial heart” of the region and the continent.